The International Crisis Group has advised Bangladesh to avoid aligning too closely with any single country or bloc, stressing that a diversified foreign policy would enhance Dhaka’s strategic autonomy amid shifting regional dynamics.
In a recent report, the Brussels-based organisation said that intensifying major-power competition in the Indo-Pacific requires Bangladesh to maintain a balanced approach in its external relations.
“Given intensifying major-power competition in the Indo-Pacific, it should avoid aligning too closely with any single country or bloc,” the Crisis Group said, adding that such an approach would enable Bangladesh to better navigate evolving geopolitical realities.
The report noted that diversification of partnerships would also help mitigate domestic backlash linked to perceptions of overdependence on particular external actors, citing anti-India sentiment that contributed to declining support for the government of Sheikh Hasina.
It identified rebuilding ties with India as the most pressing task for the new administration.
A senior Bangladeshi official said the country is returning to the foreign policy principles of martyred President Ziaur Rahman, focusing on maintaining constructive relations with all countries while safeguarding national interests.
Under a “Bangladesh First” policy, Dhaka aims to pursue respectful and mutually beneficial ties, particularly with neighbouring states, based on sovereign equality and shared interests.
The Crisis Group observed that Bangladesh’s foreign policy under Hasina was closely aligned with India, addressing New Delhi’s security concerns and deepening economic integration. However, bilateral relations reportedly fell to “historic lows” following her removal from office.
The report, titled “Bangladesh’s New Government Gets Down to Business”, said outreach from India has continued, including an invitation from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to BNP leader Tarique Rahman to visit India.
“Dhaka and New Delhi should seek to build on this long overdue reset. But domestic politics in both countries will constrain efforts to restore ties,” the organisation said.
The BNP-led government has taken office amid significant regional and global shifts, presenting both risks and opportunities.
According to the report, the ouster of Hasina has triggered a diplomatic rebalancing, with key global players—including United States, China and India—seeking to strengthen engagement with the new administration.
Under President Donald Trump, Washington has placed renewed emphasis on trade and strategic competition with China, including through a Reciprocal Trade Agreement signed earlier this year.
China, for its part, has continued to deepen ties across Bangladesh’s political spectrum, positioning itself as a key partner in infrastructure development while highlighting its policy of non-interference.
In this evolving global landscape, the report said Dhaka will need to carefully balance relations not only with major powers but also with partners such as the European Union, Japan, Pakistan, Türkiye, Gulf Arab states and Russia.
Foreign governments moved swiftly to recognise the BNP’s electoral victory, with India signalling readiness to work with the new leadership despite previously strained relations with the interim administration.
The United States and China also acted quickly to reinforce ties. Following the swearing-in, President Trump congratulated the new government and urged adherence to a bilateral trade deal signed earlier, as well as the completion of routine defence agreements to facilitate the purchase of US military equipment.
On 17 February, Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed Beijing’s willingness to enhance “high-quality Belt and Road cooperation” and elevate bilateral relations to a new level, underscoring mutual respect and win-win cooperation—remarks seen as a subtle critique of India’s perceived role in Bangladesh’s internal affairs.
Rohingya crisis remains a major challenge
The Crisis Group warned that the Rohingya refugee crisis will remain one of Bangladesh’s most complex foreign policy challenges.
Ongoing conflict in Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine State, makes the early repatriation of around 1.2 million Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar unlikely.
With limited prospects for third-country resettlement, most refugees are expected to remain in Bangladesh for the foreseeable future.
The report noted that current restrictions on employment have left refugees heavily dependent on international aid, which has declined significantly following the scaling down of support from United States Agency for International Development. Reduced funding has already forced the World Food Programme to cut food assistance for many families.
The Crisis Group recommended allowing Rohingya refugees limited access to employment, particularly in sectors facing labour shortages, while taking measures to minimise adverse effects on local communities.
It also stressed the need to curb the influence of armed groups within the camps and along the border.
With the Arakan Army now controlling much of Rakhine State, the report said Dhaka should resume dialogue with the group, noting that previous efforts by the interim government yielded little progress.
FP/MI
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